So Here's The Thing: 2026 Restaurant Industry Predictions

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Hey friends, welcome to the first new year edition of So Here’s the Thing with my friend Jack Monson. Hey. Today’s topic, Jack, is going to be 2026 Predictions. Like, what do we see in our crystal ball for this year?

Are we talking football, or are we talking restaurants and franchise?

I don’t know, but I’m just loving how Cubans are just having moments everywhere. We’re everywhere all of a sudden. I just freaking love it. People are talking about Miami, like, what’s that place? Where’s that thing? I’m like, oh, come on, folks.

The new financial capital of the world. I truly see. Okay, let’s start with predictions outside of restaurants. I think Miami is going to be the new Wall Street. Like, sooner rather than later, but.

Those of us in the know have already recognized it for a long time as the international headquarters for all of South America and Central American business. The major deals that I’ve done that are inter-parties across multiple Spanish-speaking countries, you know, where we meet, Miami, to close deals. And so this has been happening my entire professional career for 20 years. And so Miami is having a moment.

I think also New York is having a really bad moment. So I think I think Wall Street South is going to rise.

That’s such a great prediction. I’m going to like high five you on that. I totally agree. And I have several people that I know, investors and similar, who have fled New York and environs. And a lot of New Yorkers end up in Florida, just warmer and has no state income tax.

New York South. And right now, all of my friends in Dallas are saying, wait, wait, what about us?

Okay. All right, so prediction number one, Miami is going to see some action, both maybe in football and also in business. Yes. Prediction number two, the buzz around the water cooler right now is from a deals perspective, that investors are starting to move money around again, and that deal flow is moving, and moving in other industries that have more upside or more stability in today’s economy. Actually, restaurant’s fairly stable. I mean, we closed the year out up and to the right, very rough year for restaurants, extremely low profitability. The National Restaurant Association was putting average unit profitability around 3% or something like that. A rebound is coming, folks. The question is when and in what format? Like how big is the wave going to be? Are we going to get tsunami level deals? Not right out of the gate, but we’re going to see an up and to the right, the swells are rolling in. It’s kind of, I’m on a surfing metaphor. Here we go. I just, I can feel it. I’m starting to see it. Other folks who are in what I do and adjacent are also seeing it. And that’s a very, very good thing. So the, if indeed we are in a K-shaped economy, the top of that economy who’s making these deals happen is just going, just going and lifting the bottom half hopefully, right? And you know what they say, a rising tide lifts all boats. So here we go. So get your life preserver on, get your floaties on, because this year is going to be fast and furious at some point, but it’s not going to be like a huge wave at first. I think it’s just going to be like.

Yeah, it’s, it’s growing, it’s building. I’m very bullish on all of it right now. I think most of the people I’ve spoken with at a couple of franchise events that I’ve been to already here in January, everyone’s feeling the same, you know, people have been sitting on deals for a year, and now it’s time to, to, you know, sign on the line that is dotted. I think what I’ve been hearing so far is everyone’s looking at, okay, GDP is out of sight, it’s great, right? And quite frankly, things like the price of gas is way down, the price of eggs are down. We’ll see how interest rates do soon, but you know, all of that is adding up to more consumer confidence, more small business owners feeling like it’s time to grow their small business. And I don’t know, I tend to get this way every January, I feel really optimistic no matter what’s happening, but I’m going to say this time it’s for real, right? So I think we’re going to have a great 2026. The third prediction I’ll throw out there too is more of this trend that I’ve started to see on the franchise side of the space with brands that may be struggling or not growing as fast as they could grow, being bought out and taken over by a franchisee, right? This has happened twice in my little world in the past couple of months with a couple of brands that I work with. And it’s a great thing. You know, there’s nothing like a franchisee of a brand wanting to own the entire brand that says, this is a great business to be in, right? So I’ve seen it with a couple of them. Most recently this week, a brand out of Texas that I work with called Mr. Gattie’s Pizza was just acquired by a franchisee. And this happened a few months ago with Bricks Holdings, which owns several restaurant brands. And I think it’s fantastic, you know, when a franchisee recognizes that they could do what they do with the entire brand and not just take their money and invest it in something else like the stock market. That says a lot about a brand. So I’m really excited to see that happen more and more in 2026.

So I’m going to double down on that with prediction number four. I think you will see multi-unit, multi-brand franchisees emerge as the victors in investment this year. Why? Because not only are they taking over brands where they’re heavily invested already, not just to protect their investment, but to hopefully better the brand on the whole. But they are also well capitalized, many of them. And so they’re diversified enough across day part segments and different brands that they have some stability in cash flow year over year, even in slightly depressed markets like last year. And so what they are seeing as people who are long term invested, who’ve built wealth as operators in this space, who are seasoned entrepreneurs, is opportunistic investment. And so they’re not just buying franchisers, they’re buying out other franchisees and expanding their footprint because it’s cheaper to buy other failing units and resurrect them or flip them into another brand than it is to go build new units right now. So they’re looking for areas to grow and acquisition, strategic and opportunistic acquisition because there are deals everywhere. Operators who are burned out, who are done hovering at break even, who haven’t paid themselves in three years, who’s maybe the credit facility is getting called in, who are upside down on debt.

And who want to retire. Let’s not ignore that. There are 10,000 people a day in this country turning 65 right now. And how many of them are franchisees? How many of them are restaurant owners? And so many of them, most of them aren’t even retiring at 65. It’s really 70 or 75 now. And so many of them have a great business and they don’t want to get rid of it, but it’s that time, right? So there’s so many great opportunities out there for operators.

Yeah. I think prediction number five is there is going to be a wave of new tech in our industry, in and around financial reporting, and you not be able to stop hearing the word AI attached to it. And the reason for this is finally, like at an investor level, the worst thing ever is to see an investment start doing this, but you can’t see in the numbers what’s happening down to diagnose it appropriately. And you can put boots on the ground all you want, but you need to validate those instincts and make sure that the changes you’re making over time are working. And I’m speaking from an investor operate, like I’m an operating investor, like we do not just hand money off and let it sit there. Like we’re not allocators, right? So I know this pain point very well. In down profitability, every professional investor and their cousin, sister, brother and mother need this level of visibility down to the unit level. And it has not been mastered yet by any one software suite that I have seen. And now what I am seeing is solutions, which we even as a firm have architected out exactly what success looks like for that, are now starting to like solve for it in bits and pieces all over the place. And it’s a matter of time before these products become not only required participation for franchisees, but become literally like the new best practice for any equity investor, that level of visibility, dash boarding, and dare I say, business intelligence, business analytics, right? Like there just, we’re not used to that in the restaurant industry. I don’t know why, I know why, but we need to get hit. And this is us getting hit because profitability is under attack. We’ve got to resurrect profitability. And if you don’t know where every penny is going on that profit and loss statement, you’re hosed. So this year, I’m predicting a surge, the rise of AI-powered financial reporting software for restaurants and food and beverage.

So it sounds like some software company or SaaS company out there could really step up and become the gold standard, really become the industry, the recognized industry standard for everything you’re talking about here. And maybe if some AI software companies want to get away from, you know, making funny pictures and unicorns and rainbows and things like that, and really develop something that restaurant operators could actually use, they would probably make a fortune. So, there’s my advice, software companies.

It may actually replace some of the lower level AR, AP, payroll level accounting functions. And that makes total sense to me because we have a nationwide shortage of certified public accountants. Like you talked about retirement at 65. You look at the fall off chart. I mean, it’s like a cliff of the number of people who went and got a Mac and, you know, got professional certification in accounting. It’s like a cliff. It’s a nosedive. And so we’re running out of talent in that space. And to be fair, that talent needs to be doing the higher level work. And then I’ll pay you for that. But the cost attached to the lower level work right now is ridiculously inefficient. And so I don’t think it’s just business analytics at the top. I actually think it’s the inputs as well. They were going to see some better returns on investment for those services because the lower level stuff is just going to be handled. And it’s probably going to be more automated and efficient. And it already is to some extent, but not consistently, in my opinion.

So those are, I think that’s a that’s a great place for maybe not just any AI software or developer out there, but someone who’s already in accounting and payroll and all of the things that that we’re already using and the restaurant systems are already using, I think we’ll see some of those companies step up into developing exactly what you’re talking about. So as we wrap up for the day, I’d love to hear everybody else’s predictions for the rest of this year. I’m not tired of predictions yet. I love this time of year because it’s like I said, it’s all sunny here. So let us know what you think is going to happen in 2026. What do you think of our predictions? And let us know in today’s comments.

Yeah, there are some predictions in and we’ll respond in the next episode. Thanks, guys. Until next time.